Some guesswork: Ngô Bao Châu, Cédric Villani, Artur Avila, Mark Kisin.

All have obtained important junior prizes and big permanent positions recently,  published several papers in JAMS & Ann. Math.  since 2006, and finally they are into their last cycle of eligibility (except Avila).  Plus it’s a good mix of subjects.

Then, Nevanlinna: Irit Dinur ; Gauss: Yves Meyer ;  Chern: Louis Nirenberg.  Again, just an educated guess, at least the full participant list so far says they will be there, and they look like good bets (if I understood the prize descriptions correctly).

According to the latest schedule, the opening ceremony (which will be streamed live)  is set for 9:30 to 12:30am local time, that’s UTC/GMT +5:30.      So something like thursday 19 august at 10:30am in Hyderabad will translate into 7:00am Paris time,   6:00am London time,    1:00am East Coast time   and actually wednesday 18 august 10:00pm West Coast time.    Thus Europe and the Americas will definitely be awake when it’s announced, convenient.

But before that, the Perseids!


6 Responses to “Guesswork”

  1. K Says:

    You are wrong, at least for one Fields medalist which I know about, I think Ngo is a safe bet + the medalist I know about, my guesses for the remaining two are from Green/Lurie/Bhargava. Although Venkatesh and Avila are good candidates, they are young and I think they can give them in 2014, Lurie is an exception here, because he works in a completly other field (Algbera).

    Irit seem a good choice for the Nevanlinna.

    About the Chern medal, they haven’t published a guidelines (geometry or whatever), but if they give it to non-Fields medalists, then I think Gromov or Sarnak make strong candidates, prehaps Kazhdan and maybe even Furstenberg (he’s a plenary speaker, his work spans a lot of fields, including the foundations of some of the work by Green and Tao, and he’s elder man ~75).

  2. Thomas Sauvaget Says:

    Well, seems both of us had good guesses and incorrect ones! It’s true that Avila has another 2 cycles, so have Green, Lurie and Venkatesh (and probably many others: Naor, Mirzakhani…). Bhargava still has one I think. So, that’s already too many names for 2014…

    Looks like medalists aged between 36 and 40 will become the norm then.

  3. K Says:

    I’m actually a bit surprised with the choices (I knew about Lindenstrauss, and Ngo was a safe bet).

    Anyways, for the other names you’ve mentioned, Green and Lurie was both born in 1977, so they have only one more cycle.

    Naor was born in 1975, so only one more for him also (although I seriouesly doubt that they are going to give Fields for functional analysis, although Assaf was a student of Lindenstrauss’ father).

    It seems that Bhargava was born in 1974, so he managed to have one more cycle by chance.

    It’s a bit too early to start guessing right now (who thought of Ngo in 2006?), but there are indeed many names for 2014.

    • Thomas Sauvaget Says:

      Thanks for the comments.

      I’ve looked them up and you’re right, only one more chance for all of them. It’s only Avila that still has two. Sorry for my errors.

  4. T.G. Says:

    Who will win Fields Medal in 2014?

    • Thomas Sauvaget Says:

      Well, I think I’ll allow this comment (but cannot be held accountable for its content), but am now closing this comment section, since this blog post was about the 2010 ICM anyway.

      For 2014 I had tried to come up with a shortlist here (which has some overlap with yours).

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